Apple Mac HQ

With the 2008 Macworld JobsNote just a few days away, speculation is nearly at an all time high. Every Apple and gadget related blog has already posted their Macworld predictions and I’m about to toss mine out too. Could this years Keynote bring something bigger than the 2007 Keynote when Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone to the world? I think it’s going to be pretty hard to top the iPhone, but I’m expecting great things from Apple none the less. Here are my predictions (and the percentage chance that it will happen) for the 2008 Macworld Keynote, which will be held Tuesday, January 15th live in San Francisco. Head on over to this post on Engadget for live coverage of the Keynote starting at 9:00AM Pacific.

Software
In light of the recent news that iTunes will soon bring movie rentals, I think it’s safe to say we’re going to see a new version of iTunes out (and likely Quicktime as these are often updated together). With the exception of Aperture, all other Apple software has received some kind of update recently. Will there be a new version of Aperture released at Macworld? I don’t think we’ll see a new version of Aperture at Macworld. Macworld is predominately a consumer focused event and Aperture is a professional level application. Maybe we’ll see a new Aperture at WWDC in June. Chances we see a new iTunes/Quicktime: 100%. Chances we’ll see a new Aperture: 15%.

iPods
Not much to speculate on here. The entire line was recently updated (except for the color for the Shuffle) so it’s pretty unlikely you’ll see anything new here. Chances we’ll see a new iPod: 0%.

Cinema Displays
The Cinema Displays haven’t received a redesign in quite some time. The long running rumor on the circuit has Apple adding iSight cameras to the displays. This is a fairly obvious upgrade path for the Cinema Displays so if they were to be updated I’d go for that. If we do see a new Cinema Display, I’d expect to see a price drop to keep them reasonably attractive in the current marketplace. Chances we’ll see an updated Cinema Display: 20%.

Mac Desktops
With the recent update of the Mac Pro and the fairly new iMac redesign, those products will likely see no action at Macworld. My predication here is that Apple will finally plug the gap in their product line and release a traditional tower Mac, much like you can find from every PC vendor. This new “Tower Mac” is the perfect transition for switchers and plugs what I consider a fairly serious hole in the Apple product line. The problem with this hypothetical Mac is creating something that will bring in similar profit as the iMac but at the same time avoiding the cannibalization of Mac Pro sales. This tower Mac will be somewhat upgradeable and much like the Mac Mini, it won’t come with a keyboard or mouse. The main features would be an upgradeable video card, optical drive, and extra bays for hard drives and optical media. Chances we’ll see this “Tower Mac”: 33%.

Mac Notebooks
I’m going to go with the blogosphere here and predict some type of 12″ Powerbook type device. This will be a sub notebook type device without an optical drive and without a touch screen. I don’t think the standard configuration will include a SSD for storage, but that will be configuration option. Right now SSD storage is expensive and capacity is lacking. As far as a Macbook or Macbook Pro update, there’s a chance we’ll see something for the MBP but unlikely for the Macbook. The Macbook is selling very strong and I don’t think Apple will update it while sales are soaring. Chances for a sub notebook: 75%. Chances for a Macbook Update: 5%. Chances for a MBP update: 20%.

iPhone
When the AT&T CEO spilled the beans about the 3G iPhone, I predicted it would be a 4Q release. I’m sticking to that predication, but I do think we’ll see one iPhone related announcement. I think Steve Jobs will demo a few applications built with the upcoming iPhone SDK. Demoing new functionality will keep people interested in the current iPhone and encourage them to buy now rather than waiting for the 3G iPhone. Speaking of new functionality, I’m predicting some formal announcement about supporting Microsoft Exchange on the iPhone (IMAP doesn’t count). Oh yeah, and we’ll see some of those new features in the 1.1.3 firmware upgrade. Chances we’ll see some iPhone applications demoed: 100%. Chances we’ll see a 3G iPhone: 5%.

AppleTV
I’m hoping for a new AppleTV. I think we’ll see movie rentals with a firmware upgrade to the current AppleTV too. I’d really love to see more HD content on the AppleTV and I’m hoping Apple delivers. I’m not entirely sure what Cupertino will bring to the AppleTV but I’m hoping it gets updated in some fashion. I’d really like to get one! Chances Apple will drop an AppleTV update: 50%

Other
HD content is the future and Apple has long been on the cutting edge of technology changes (mouse, network card, removing floppy disk, express card, etc). I think it’s time Apple shows why they joined the Blu-Ray Disc Association back in March 2005. I could see a Blu-Ray optical drive standard for Mac Pros and Macbook Pros, and as an option for Macbooks and iMacs. It’s cost prohibitve to include Blu-Ray drives with the lower prices iMac and Macbook. Chances of Blu-Ray support: 60%.

We just might see the Leopard 10.5.2 update hinted at during some point of the Keynote. I don’t think it will be much more than a footnote, if it’s mentioned at all. Who knows, 10.5.2 could be the gate keeper for something new. Chances we’ll see any mention of 10.5.2: 20%

So those are my picks. I’m fully confident that some of my picks will be totally off the mark. But if you shoot enough, you’re bound to hit the target sometime.

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